(At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. We are 41% through the Water Year. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. //2006-10-04: news To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. google_color_text = "000000"; //2006-10-04: news Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. //-->, Printable Version The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. 192 0 obj <>stream google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Detailed Map of Powell https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. %%EOF It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. SW Satellite Weather Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. Climate change also plays a part. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . Water managers, who . In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) google_color_url = "426C95"; By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. WEco is funded by multiple donors. Gas Prices on Lake Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. SW Satellite Weather To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. As the forecast season progresses, Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The lake is set to reach. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Click for . The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. What's the weather forecast for 2050? google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Lake Powell