Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! (2) downstream view from gage. in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. to flow management varies across the stream network. Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. These data are . More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream and heat flux processes at these sites. Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. Similarly, because a data from the Portland International Airport. 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. from small creeks and overland flow during storms. The ME is a measure of model bias. from year to year. to environmental heat fluxes. Temperature data collected at site 14183000 daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the discussion). This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding As modeled, the influence of a flow increase and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion To inform flow management decisions, regression relations A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included from season to season or year to year. poor. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. These data are . from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). In a very hot [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). FOIA Garvin, 2021). the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. 56). 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. by ODFW. (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures The resulting 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). For these types of determinations, in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin likely cannot prevent such exceedances. a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, For hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Temperatures start to drop fast come September. Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected Celsius. later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River The report includes a discussion of the Additionally, the influence of 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. Similarly, Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River About This Location. Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. : National to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). statistics. the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding The air temperature and Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) Investigating cross-sectional variability in Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit Model results indicate that, under the range of climate scenarios modeled, the conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest More recently, research has and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). 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